Thailand Tops the World in COVID Reproduction Rate

Daily Cases Could Theoretically * Cross 135,000 in 30 days If No Measures are Taken*

Thailand currently tops the world in the COVID Reproduction Rate (R ). If no immediate steps are taken, based on the R of 2.27 and considering a five-day incubation period, the daily COVID cases can be calculated to cross 135,000 in 30 days. This calculation is based on the assumption that no immediate steps are taken; and like all mathematical models, it is based on assumption and current scenario, and it should not be construed as a definitive prediction, since preventive measures can halt this surge.

This analysis by Professor Worsak Kanok-Nukulchai, Executive Director of the Chulalongkorn School of Integrated Integration (ScII) has been widely quoted by the media in Thailand, including TNN, Isra News, BrightTV, Pantip, and many others.

Prof Worsak points out that Thailand’s R-value of 2.27 is way ahead of the global average of 1.17 and substantially ahead of the second most infectious country, Suriname. An R-value of 2.27 means that a COVID-infected person spreads the infection to another 2.27 persons.

R-Value is an indicator which tells us that if the R-value is 1, then one person is infecting one person. If the R-value is 2, then one infecting person is infecting 2 other persons.

An R-value of more than 1 means that infections will continue to spread, while an R-value of less than 1 means that infections will gradually decline and reach zero.

The analysis also points out that at this stage, the most effective measure has been vaccination. Citing the case of the United States, Professor Worsak points out that a large scale vaccination since late December last year has helped bring down the rate of infection today to 1.08. At this rate of vaccination, the daily infections could soon reach zero.

Within ASEAN, Indonesia has the highest number of vaccinations, with 16.1 million doses covering 5.8 % of the country’s population. This has helped Indonesia bring down its daily infections from 12,751 to 5,211 and its R has reached 1.0. On the other hand, Thailand has vaccinated only 0.58 million doses, which covers only 0.83 % of the population.

The analysis concludes with a recommendation to the government to launch a nationwide mobilization for effective COVID vaccinations. It should be implemented with urgency to reduce the risk. Other measures can supplement vaccination, but in an economy that is heavily interconnected with the global economy and reliant on tourism, continuous closures can have a devastating impact on the economy.
To implement this critical vaccination campaign, the government should provide administrative and budgetary support so that vaccination can be free and easily accessible in government and private hospitals and clinics. This would be a more appropriate way of apportioning the budget on a critical issue.

The original post by Prof Worsak was posted here on his Facebook account: https://www.facebook.com/worsak.ait/posts/1692092130975748